Episode 154 — Are You Prepared for SHTF? Area Intelligence with Mike Shelby

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[0:02:10] Mr. Shelby served as a U.S. Army Intelligence non-commissioned officer, [0:02:15] was dealing with intelligence there, [0:02:17] and now is here to teach us civilians how to watch our sex. [0:02:23] Mike, thank you so much for joining me today. [0:02:25] Yeah, well, thanks for having me. [0:02:27] Glad to be here. [0:02:27] No, this is great. [0:02:28] So, yeah, we've got your website, which is in the show notes below, [0:02:33] areaintelligence.com. [0:02:35] That's just one of them. [0:02:36] You've got several different websites that are all linked. [0:02:38] You run a YouTube channel called Forward Observer, [0:02:42] and you're on X at Grayzone Intel, [0:02:45] just so that people know where to find all of your stuff. [0:02:47] And you are coming out with a second edition of your book. [0:02:51] So can you, I guess, first of all, [0:02:54] let's just talk a little bit about how you got into this, [0:02:56] what it was like being in the actual intelligence apparatus. [0:03:02] What did you learn? [0:03:04] What can we use? [0:03:06] How did this start for you? [0:03:10] Sorry, a little open-ended question. [0:03:12] Well, I've always been an info junkie. And that's just my personality type. And I remember even in elementary school and middle school and high school, just absorbing large quantities of information. [0:03:27] And it's not really until I went through the Intel Schoolhouse at Fort Huachuca that I realized information is good. Lots of information is great. But knowing a lot of things about a lot of different topics is not really intelligence. [0:03:41] And so, you know, the biggest, I would say the biggest lesson initially, like just step one right out of the gate, even not even step one, going from zero, step zero to step one is you have a mission. [0:03:56] Maybe you don't understand that you do, but you definitely should have a mission at the local level. [0:04:00] And you need certain pieces of information to drive that mission forward. [0:04:05] And, you know, maybe that's planning a road trip, going on vacation. [0:04:09] Guess what? That's your mission to get there, have a fun time and get back. [0:04:12] Or maybe it's going to work or going to the grocery store and coming back. [0:04:14] Or maybe it is the apocalypse or whatever, you know, prepper thing you're planning for. [0:04:20] You have some kind of mission. [0:04:22] So we need mission critical information that exists. [0:04:27] And we need to know that so that we can make better decisions faster, [0:04:31] leaning into this emergency or leaning into this mission, whatever that is. [0:04:34] So that zero to one key term there is really intelligence value. All information probably [0:04:44] has intelligence value to someone, but most of it has zero intelligence value to you. So the thing [0:04:49] that I recommend everyone do is think about your local level. Think about the information that [0:04:54] exists there in what we call your operational environment and determine what types of information [0:04:59] has intelligence value to you to support your mission. And if you can do that, you'll be head [0:05:04] and shoulders above your peers and competitors. Yeah, no, I mean, I think that this is super [0:05:10] important. You know, my family, we relocated in 2020 to North Idaho. COVID and everything around [0:05:18] that obviously was a key driver. But it is interesting that, you know, the landscape changes [0:05:24] so much. You've got to forgive me. I've got a little bit of ADD, so I'm a little all over the [0:05:28] place. But I saw earlier today, this tweet come out about mass domestic migration being real. [0:05:35] And it is. And we're seeing that happen, especially if you look at the map here in [0:05:39] the North Idaho area, we are getting a massive influx, which is just as disruptive as like [0:05:46] being invaded by a foreign nation, even though this is internal American migration that's going [0:05:52] on. And with that, you've got a lot of people that are moving to a lot of new places where [0:05:57] They didn't grow up. They don't know the local history. So what would be on your checklist? [0:06:02] Let's say that you're relocating your family to a new area. What does that initial phase of the [0:06:10] area assessment look like? What are you looking for to get your intelligence together, I guess, [0:06:17] for the local level? Yeah. So the vehicle or the format that we use for that is called an area [0:06:26] study and that's what the the 2023 version of the book was about and then i have this new version [0:06:31] coming out i still called the area intelligence handbook but it's the second edition and honestly [0:06:36] like the final edition it's over 600 pages long it is like the ultimate area intelligence manual [0:06:41] i'm after this i'm never gonna write another update ever again uh at least not in a book format [0:06:47] so it's really the book is really intended as a go-to reference guide and some people are going [0:06:53] to read it front to back, which is great. Other people are going to flip around and read the [0:06:56] sections that are most applicable to them, which is also fine. But it really is supposed to be [0:07:01] the ultimate handbook for developing area intelligence. So we build an area study [0:07:05] and that area study has six different, well, let's back up. We need intelligence because [0:07:14] we have blind spots. We have intelligence gaps or things that we need to know, but we don't know. [0:07:19] So if you move to a new area, that's going to be what are your neighbors' names and who are they and what do they believe? [0:07:29] And are there any other households with kids your kid's age? [0:07:35] Are there any firefighters or law enforcement officers who live in your neighborhood? [0:07:40] People we call key personnel. [0:07:42] And then it's going to be like, well, what are the local gangs or the local crime? [0:07:45] What's the local crime trends? [0:07:47] And is your neighborhood susceptible? [0:07:48] Is your neighborhood, are there burglars targeting your neighborhood? [0:07:52] So there's all these different things that you really need to know but don't know. [0:07:56] We call those intelligence gaps. [0:07:58] So we look at the intelligence cycle. [0:08:01] The very first step of the intelligence cycle is called receipt of mission. [0:08:05] So for you, that's I'm a father. [0:08:07] I'm a head of household. [0:08:08] We live in a new place. [0:08:10] I need to make sure my family is going to be safe. [0:08:11] So I need to know certain things. [0:08:13] Well, identifying what you know and what you don't know is pretty much like the first thing [0:08:17] that you want to do. [0:08:18] So we look at threats and hazards. [0:08:22] And there are really two reasons why we do an area study. [0:08:25] Number one, to figure out what we're up against. [0:08:27] Those are the threats and hazards and vulnerabilities that we have in our local area of operations. [0:08:34] Threats, hazards, vulnerabilities. [0:08:35] Those are the first three things. [0:08:37] And then the other side of that, which a lot of people really look over, but it's an extremely, I mean, it's just mission critical. [0:08:43] That is what we have to work with. [0:08:45] So what are the assets and resources and opportunities that you have in your neighborhood or in your broader community or maybe across your county? [0:08:53] And we want to figure out what is the balance of threats and hazards versus assets and resources. [0:08:59] And if you have more threats and hazards than you have assets and resources, then you have a lot of considerations to make about your future. [0:09:07] So let's focus on the first thing here, threats, hazards, and vulnerabilities. [0:09:11] So threats, those could be criminal. They could be, you know, in some cases, you know, probably not conventional threats. Like, I don't think we're going to be dealing with, you know, invading armies or anything like that. [0:09:25] The average person, and sorry if I'm getting long-winded here. [0:09:28] No, you're good. [0:09:29] It's like a big, big topic. [0:09:30] But for most people, your threats are going to be irregular. [0:09:35] There's like gangs, mobs, looters, criminals, organized crime, unorganized crime, local corruption and law enforcement. [0:09:42] I'll tell you a big thing that a lot of people don't realize is, you know, they say, oh, you know, we're going to move from this city and we're going to go up to Appalachia. [0:09:50] We're going to go live in North Idaho or we're going to go move out in this rural county in Central Texas or wherever, out in the hill country. [0:09:58] in a lot of places your last name matters like if your last name is not two three five seven plus [0:10:03] generations deep you are basically a foreigner like you're not chinese but you're not one of [0:10:09] them and that isn't a regular threat that's something that a lot of people just do not [0:10:13] take into consideration and in an emergency that may cause friction like especially if you live in [0:10:19] like a very kind of tribal or clannish area and um you know that's one thing i've got texas plates [0:10:25] But even, you know, when I drive around our hunting area, I have family in Idaho. [0:10:30] You know, even I with Texas plates, people are like, oh, he needs to go hunt in Texas. [0:10:34] He shouldn't be coming up here to hunt in Idaho. [0:10:37] These are our deer. [0:10:38] Which, okay, you completely get that. [0:10:40] But that is an element that a lot of people are going to run into. [0:10:43] Oh, yeah. [0:10:44] No, for sure. [0:10:44] I mean, I remember when we first moved up here to North Idaho, you know, it's like, oh, finally, like we're in like the land of Randy Weaver. [0:10:51] Like, you know, everybody's a prepper up here, you know. [0:10:53] And then you start going into some of these smaller communities like Priest River, for example, and it's like, holy shit, I have never experienced anything like this in my life. [0:11:03] I mean, the level of pettiness and corruption in one way, you know, the way that they were handling their like assessments of properties, they were like charging people that just moved to the area much higher rates than people that were currently living there. [0:11:21] And then you've got, you know, in certain rural areas, too, especially in North Idaho, you've got people that are dependent on state money. [0:11:30] And so when you get a Republican Party, for example, that's like, yeah, we're going to slash all funding. [0:11:34] We're going to try to cut public school budgets. [0:11:36] Well, you got the bus driver up in, you know, bumfuck that totally relies on that income. [0:11:41] Well, now all of a sudden you've like radicalized them and because you're going after their paycheck. [0:11:46] They don't know about DEI or CRT or whatever it is that you're combating. [0:11:52] They just know, hey, I might not be able to make rent this month if these Republicans are able to pass school choice or whatever. [0:11:59] And a lot of people, like, they get blindsided by that. [0:12:03] That's for sure. [0:12:05] That's crazy. [0:12:06] So now how would one, I guess, go about finding out about the gangs in their area? [0:12:13] Because I do think that this is a very big threat that we're going to be dealing with for the next while, especially with our situation with Mexico, the illegal immigration. [0:12:26] And then you've got these different groups like the was it Norteños is one, El Norte, CJNG, all of these different cartels. [0:12:36] How would you begin gathering intelligence on on that? [0:12:41] Yeah. Well, there are four primary intelligence collection disciplines and just think like those are just basically broad general methods. And so the first thing that I would always go to is called OSINT or open source intelligence. So this is stuff that predominantly exists online. [0:12:59] And OSINT is more than just stuff that's online, but social media, websites, databases, I mean, just all sorts of information. [0:13:06] And that's my first go-to for a couple of reasons. [0:13:08] Number one, you can automate it. [0:13:10] And number two, it's because that information probably exists somewhere online anyway. [0:13:15] So what you can do is sign up for, I mean, there's certain new services you can use, like just even doing a Google search and just looking up, you know, I don't know, Shelby County and crime. [0:13:27] Shelby County and Cartels, Shelby County and CJNG or Sinaloa Cartel or MS-13 or whatever. [0:13:39] And you can use Google Alerts. [0:13:40] There's a handful of services out there that will do that. [0:13:43] Actually, we are building, on this side, we're building something very much like that to feed the local intelligence picture for you, [0:13:51] kind of hyper-local intelligence engine. [0:13:53] That's really the future of Ford Observer. [0:13:56] So, you know, for now, though, Google search or Google alerts, there's a bunch of different things you can use. [0:14:01] But that's the first place I would go because you're going to find immediate results. [0:14:05] You are going to find something online. [0:14:07] And we can automate that as well. [0:14:10] So, you know, a lot of people use AI now, chat GPT or Claude or, you know, whatever you want. [0:14:14] And actually, that doesn't do a half bad job of just doing kind of like menial search tasks. [0:14:20] You can literally just create an agent that says, hey, check this website every morning at 6 a.m. or check X, Y, or Z or do a search for this or like every week do a new news search for these search terms or for these search topics like crime or gang activity. [0:14:36] And then you can automate that and literally runs in your sleep. [0:14:39] That's also not a bad option. [0:14:40] you are going to get some information, but the juiciest stuff that you really want is going to be firsthand from humans, which we call human intelligence or human. [0:14:52] And that's going to be local law enforcement or maybe some local first responders who have some knowledge there, your county sheriff's office, for instance. [0:15:00] and we are going to have to make friends, [0:15:03] develop relationships with those people [0:15:05] and develop rapport and trust over time [0:15:08] until we can get into a situation [0:15:10] where we can ask those kinds of pointed questions [0:15:12] because we're friends. [0:15:14] And Barney Fife or whoever, Deputy Fife [0:15:17] is ideologically the same as me [0:15:20] and he's willing to share that information with me [0:15:22] because he wants me to know about it as well [0:15:26] so I can protect my family [0:15:27] or I can do maybe lots of things [0:15:30] with that. Then the other way is, we call it just unwitting source. And maybe if you go on a ride [0:15:37] along, a lot of these city police departments or maybe your county sheriff's office have ride [0:15:43] along programs. And that's a lot more natural situation where you can ask questions because [0:15:48] you are a concerned, upstanding citizen. And you go sign up, you do your little background check. [0:15:54] And if you go do a ride along, don't go on a Tuesday afternoon. Go on like a Friday night [0:15:57] or Saturday night when the zoo creatures come out, [0:16:00] get a sense for what your community actually looks like when, you know, [0:16:04] when high crime and high, like just crazy stuff's going on maybe. So, uh, [0:16:08] yeah, go do that. And then you have, [0:16:11] I think most of those shifts are like four, six, 12 hours or something like [0:16:14] that. And I'm sure it depends on the agency, but go do that in, [0:16:19] and just use that opportunity just to have a friendly conversation with the, [0:16:23] with the sheriff's deputy or the police officer. [0:16:27] And a lot of times too, those guys will be like, [0:16:30] oh, well, this guy's going on a ride along for a reason [0:16:32] because he wants to get to know us [0:16:34] or he supports us or whatever. [0:16:36] Like make sure you're like, hey, thumbs up. [0:16:38] We support our law enforcement guys. [0:16:40] Whether you do or not, just tell them. [0:16:42] And use that as an opportunity to maybe elicit [0:16:45] or maybe ask some questions about the area. [0:16:47] Yeah, no, I think that's great. [0:16:49] And it's wild to me, you know, [0:16:51] like moving to North Idaho and then getting into it. [0:16:53] It's like how deep the, [0:16:55] the mafia stuff actually is. [0:16:57] Like most of that history has not been written. [0:17:00] People don't know about it. [0:17:02] I'm working on a series for this show at some point, [0:17:05] I think maybe this fall talking a lot about it. [0:17:08] But like our local sheriff, [0:17:10] for example, [0:17:10] like the 1960s and seventies was like babysitting, [0:17:13] like the head member of the mafia. [0:17:16] Like he would like arrest him on Friday and then take his kids to his [0:17:19] house over the weekend. [0:17:20] like look after his kids and then you know release him on monday and it's like holy shit wait what [0:17:27] are you kidding me like the sheriff was like neck deep in bed with the mafia to the point that they [0:17:33] cut federal funding from idaho that's wild and and stories like that i bet exist everywhere across [0:17:40] the country um you know this kind of unwritten history now i guess moving on to just like [0:17:47] broader intelligence. What is your assessment of the IC in America in 2026? You know, we've got, [0:17:57] we've been dealing with a lot of infiltration stuff. We were dealing with foreign threats, [0:18:02] specifically like Israel, uh, you know, getting involved in our technology sectors, making us [0:18:07] dependent on, on their tech and stuff like that. What, what is your current assessment, uh, of, [0:18:12] the intelligence apparatus as it stands? [0:18:16] Well, my last year fully in was, [0:18:19] I think my clearance is actually cut off in like 2013. [0:18:22] So, but I was out like 2012 or 2013. [0:18:25] So I'm not an expert on the ICA as it exists today, [0:18:30] but I tell you whatever whiz bang new tech, [0:18:33] new Intel platforms we had in 2012, [0:18:36] which were, you know, they call them exquisite programs [0:18:39] or exquisite collection assets for a reason. [0:18:42] whatever we thought they were in 2012, they're light years beyond, you know, what we have today [0:18:48] is light years beyond that. Man, I think there's just, I mean, there's just obviously so much [0:18:54] politicization in the intelligence community because people have, I mean, everyone has a bias [0:19:01] and whether you like the bias or you don't, I mean, bias is like the, it's the killer of [0:19:06] intelligence assessments because, you know, we have, there are things that we don't know. So [0:19:12] we've got to guess at it. That's basically what intelligence analysis is, is we're making educated [0:19:16] guesses about what the enemy is doing or planning or maybe going to do in the future. And so the [0:19:23] more we can think like them and the less we think like Americans, the better our assessments are [0:19:28] probably going to be. So the first thing is like, there's just so maybe not at the local analyst [0:19:33] level, the political bias, but we're talking about appointees and the higher you go, the more [0:19:38] political pressure you have, the more political your job is just by the nature of whatever agency [0:19:44] you work for. So, you know, like when I was in, I would just, I'll tell you a quick story and, [0:19:51] and then I'll just very politely say, I actually don't know. Cause it's been such a long time [0:19:56] since I was in, but in Afghanistan, this was, my last tour was in 2011 in Afghanistan, and the [0:20:05] State Department published a report about pedophilia being endemic among the Pashtuns, [0:20:16] which is the major tribe in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and it so infuriated Hamid Karzai, [0:20:24] who was the prime minister or sorry, the president of Afghanistan at the time that the State Department retracted it. [0:20:30] And they they spared no expense deleting that. [0:20:33] I mean, you can even find it on CIPA or JWICS, which is classified, you know, which is you might think it's like that's the last place it's going to be deleted from. [0:20:41] But there are certain things that you do not do. [0:20:44] So so the first that's kind of the first story, which is there are things that we can't say or do because we are going to make our allies mad or we're going to inflame a situation. [0:20:52] but uh in iraq before that you know i remember even going to my section chief who was a cw4 [0:20:59] which is like a you know like a highly talented intel chief and uh and i remember giving him my [0:21:05] assessment he's like yeah you can't say this i was like well yeah but it's true he says yeah we all [0:21:10] know it's true but you just can't say it so there's certain things like that that i'm i am a thousand [0:21:15] percent positive and you look at donald trump even president trump and there are things that he does [0:21:19] not want to hear and pretty much every president does not want to hear and everyone knows it's true [0:21:24] you just can't say it so how much how politicized is the intelligence it's probably all of it's [0:21:29] going to be politicized to one degree or another and that probably doesn't answer your question [0:21:33] very well but my time's up no it's all good i mean there is a there was this great book that [0:21:37] came out a couple years ago spy fail by james banford i think it was branford i mean you know [0:21:44] going just even like the first chapter of that book is crazy. It's just like, holy shit, we are [0:21:49] that vulnerable. This is like a five alarm fire. And what are we doing? We're just handing it over [0:21:57] to like, you know, Howard Lutnick and all of these like Epstein associates, like, holy shit, [0:22:03] you know? Anyway. Yeah, I would agree with that. I think it's I think it's pretty crazy right now. [0:22:09] you know, FBI, the whole thing is just kind of a mess, actually. [0:22:16] And can I just say one other thing, too? [0:22:18] A lot of people say, oh, these intelligence assessments are lies. [0:22:22] And a lot of the intelligence that would be produced that is politicized, [0:22:27] it's arriving at a conclusion by error of omission. [0:22:31] They just they do not report certain things or they exclude certain pieces of information [0:22:36] from the assessment. [0:22:38] And so, you know, you what you get is something that is politically palatable and and not really the ground truth intelligence in that. [0:22:47] And I don't care what president or what administration or what war or mission or effort or what's going on. [0:22:53] You're always going to deal with that in intelligence. Yeah. No, I think you're right about that. [0:22:58] That's for sure. Now, what is your take now? I saw I saw a tweet from you that went semi viral a couple of days ago. [0:23:05] this has been a huge topic on the internet, and that is the flock cameras. And I thought this was [0:23:11] funny. The main point that the pro and anti-flock crowd is missing is if our country were still 90% [0:23:17] white Christian, we wouldn't have flock in the first place. I think that assessment is true. [0:23:24] What is your take on flock? Because I've been trying to make an assessment, and it's like you [0:23:28] You see people that are like actively trying to encourage people to do illegal things like cutting down flock hammers, which is based and awesome. [0:23:38] And I love the idea, but I also don't want like my people getting arrested. [0:23:44] So like I'm kind of against that. [0:23:47] And then, you know, I've got friends that are a lot of people that watch the show are actually former cops. [0:23:51] And I've been asking them. [0:23:53] I'm like, listen, what's up? [0:23:54] And they're like, actually, you know, this flock stuff is pretty fucking helpful. [0:23:58] It's extremely helpful. [0:24:00] And so I'm like, okay. [0:24:03] I didn't, I mean, and it's like on the one hand, [0:24:06] I see flat cameras going up and yeah, sure. [0:24:08] It pisses me off and it's not good, [0:24:09] but it's like, where was the outrage [0:24:11] when ring cameras started to come to town? [0:24:15] They're all just looking out and capturing visual data. [0:24:19] That's all being bought and sold online. [0:24:22] The amount of traffic in front of people's houses, et cetera, [0:24:25] license plate numbers. [0:24:26] That's all being used just as much by private companies like Amazon and Tesla. [0:24:34] So what's your assessment of Flock and what should be done about it? [0:24:40] Yeah, it's a touchy subject because on the one hand, yes, if someone robs my house, I want the Flock camera down the street to get a picture or a license plate or make a model description of a vehicle, you know, something. [0:24:54] That's great. [0:24:54] On the other hand, no one needs to know what time I come and go for my house. [0:24:58] So I completely get the Fourth Amendment objections to it. [0:25:02] I think on the whole, I dislike it. [0:25:05] And the problem is, and this country does this all the time, we have a root cause of a problem, and then we try to treat the symptoms. [0:25:16] Those flock cameras are treating the symptoms of our country's rot. [0:25:23] And the fact of the matter is, if we had, you know, you look at gun crime and violent crime and all these other things among various groups and subgroups in this country. [0:25:35] And if we, you know, if we were still 90% white Christian, walk would exist, I'm sure, but we just wouldn't need it. [0:25:43] So I think it was Diomedes Appreciator on X. [0:25:50] I don't remember if he said this or not, but he was like, if we control flock, I'm for it. [0:25:54] If the enemy controls flock, I'm against it. And I mean, that's like super practical, but also [0:26:00] I don't know if you can ever tell who controls flock. So yes, it is a persistent surveillance. [0:26:09] I mean, listen, this is the future of the country. Okay. It's just persistent surveillance. [0:26:14] The question is who is being surveilled and who's being targeted and how is this going to be used [0:26:18] in the future. And I fully agree with the people who say, if we don't stop this now, we're just [0:26:23] going to live in a legit panopticon in the future. And eventually, you know, AI is going to be able [0:26:30] to read our brainwaves and tell if we're angry and say, oh, give that guy a red flag because he [0:26:34] got pissed off about something. Or, you know, this guy was going two and a half miles over the speed [0:26:38] limit. Send him a warning through the mail. I mean, literally, it's like North Korea kind of [0:26:42] stuff. Like, that's probably where we're headed. I think it's, regardless of whatever parties I'm [0:26:47] I think the Republicans and Democrats are just in a foot race to authoritarianism. [0:26:54] And I think we'll see it within our lifetimes for sure. [0:26:57] So I fully get the people that say, well, if we don't stop it now, then it's going to be 10 times, 100 times more difficult. [0:27:03] And we're not going to stop it in the future. [0:27:05] Completely get that. [0:27:06] On a practical level, it's like, can you mobilize your community to – I don't know, man. [0:27:14] It's a tricky situation. [0:27:15] I'll just end with this. [0:27:17] Who's being targeted? Are the repeat offenders, are the actual violent criminals, the criminal class, are they being targeted by the flight cameras? Or are these flight cameras being put up in your suburban neighborhood to, I don't know, catch you doing something wrong instead of going after the violent offenders? Who's being targeted? That's like, that's the crux of the question for me. [0:27:38] Yeah, I would tend to agree with you on that. You know, like it's been a back and forth. I know in our county with these they're called ALPRs, automated license plate readers. There's been just a continual back and forth between the sheriff's department and the county commissioners. Will you fund it? Will you not fund it? People don't like it. I get the arguments from both sides. [0:27:59] I'm not agnostic on it because I agree with you. I think that's where we're heading, this kind of [0:28:05] technological dystopian panopticon, you know, paid for by Palantir, etc. I'm not for that, [0:28:12] but at the same time, it's like, man, like, you know, like if the license plate reader can, [0:28:19] you know, give you a tip on a felon that you could pick up off the street because, you know, [0:28:23] uh, he's out or what, you know, like, man, it, it's, it's a hard nut to crack. I mean, [0:28:29] I think the biggest thing is just making sure that the people that are elected in your local area, [0:28:34] like that you can call them, that you can talk to them, that you can, uh, reason with them about [0:28:40] the surveillance and what they're doing and that they're responsive. Uh, and if they're not [0:28:45] responsive, then you got to get a coalition together and vote them out and put someone, [0:28:49] someone else in there that, uh, that will actually do what you think. Um, do you, where are your top, [0:28:57] uh, threats, you know, not in like LARP land, right? Like, you know, zombie apocalypse, [0:29:04] nuclear explosion, whatever. What are your actual like top five threats that you think [0:29:09] will be impacting most Americans over the next, let's say decade? [0:29:19] Sorry, not to put you on the spot or anything. [0:29:21] I mean, I was just thinking, you know, decades, a long time. [0:29:23] So let's just take this kind of year by year, right? [0:29:25] The Davidson window opens in 2027. [0:29:28] And like, are we going to war with China? [0:29:29] I don't know. [0:29:30] Depends on who's president over the next, you know, two, three, you know, five years, whatever after that. [0:29:36] I don't know. [0:29:36] But that's the first thing that had just like major national level implications. [0:29:39] Let me let me take a step back. [0:29:41] 60, 30, 10. [0:29:42] 60% of your time should be observing news in local conditions or conditions in your local area. [0:29:52] 30% should be maybe at your state or regional level and then 10% at the global level. [0:29:58] And a lot of people get this mixed up. [0:30:00] They spend 60% of the time worrying about China and Vladimir Putin and whatever's going on in D.C. [0:30:06] and 10% or less of the local time. [0:30:08] When we talk about threats, everything is a function of proximity. [0:30:15] A newt goes off in Los Angeles has no direct effect on me. [0:30:19] It has indirect effects on me, but I would be much better. [0:30:23] You know, what's more important to you? [0:30:25] A newt going off in Los Angeles or D.C. or a gang selling drugs and conducting drive-by shootings in your neighborhood. [0:30:34] Well, yeah, that gang, of course, because that is a direct or potentially direct threat against you. So that's the first thing. When we look at threats, we have to say, all right, what is the most imminent direct – what has the most imminent direct impact on me? Like out my front door, down my driveway, down the street, in and around my neighborhood and community. [0:30:51] so we can look at these big picture things like are we going to war with china are we going to [0:30:55] have a failed election in 2028 are we gonna have a civil war or some kind of national [0:31:01] constitutional crisis yeah maybe the challenge for us is to figure out you know shit rolls downhill [0:31:10] what are the the second third fourth fifth order effects of that and how does that impact me at my [0:31:16] local level. So if we go to war with China, we're probably going to have cyber attacks. [0:31:23] Shit's probably going to stop working. Maybe our power, our internet, communications, all those [0:31:27] things. Okay. So let's just assume that, you know, that's it. There's no internet or there's [0:31:31] intermittent disrupted communications and information environment. Okay. Well, how does [0:31:36] that affect you? That's the thing you need to address, not necessarily war with China, but [0:31:40] those local impacts on you, that is the real threat. And those are the real hazards that you [0:31:44] face. And a lot of people get that. They put the cart before the horse because they picture on the [0:31:49] big picture strategic, or they focus rather on the big picture strategic event rather than [0:31:54] the follow on impacts that are going to hit them in their neighborhood. So, you know, maybe something [0:32:00] happens and you're pretty insulated because you live in Northern Idaho and they're just relatively [0:32:04] lower population and there's no like massive population centers around you. And, uh, you know, [0:32:10] maybe you're more insulated. [0:32:14] So, you know, threats over the next decade, I mean, I'm very concerned about the potential [0:32:20] for a color revolution if a Republican wins in the 2028 presidential election. [0:32:26] You know, we have, I don't know, they're just, I mean, there's just so many different things. [0:32:32] But I would focus on local threats first. [0:32:33] Like, you know, what's more likely? [0:32:37] We get into a nuclear war with Russia or China or you have a house fire. [0:32:41] But we got to put things in perspective. [0:32:44] Right. No, I totally think you're right about that. [0:32:47] And it it happens. [0:32:49] So we've been this is an issue we've been dealing with in Idaho politics for a long time, especially with a certain group of people from a certain church that I won't name on this show, let's say. [0:32:58] But everybody knows what I'm talking about. [0:33:01] But they prioritize foreign policy over local policy. [0:33:06] It's just like, what are we doing? Why are we, why do we care if somebody, you know, supports a foreign country? He's running for school board. Okay. What are, what are we talking about? You know, now with this idea of a color revolution, uh, let's get into that because this has been a big meme. It's been a big talking point. [0:33:26] I remember reading some of the declassified files relating to the tenant indictment. [0:33:32] The tenant media was this like Russian-backed media thing. [0:33:38] And one of the key points of it was promoting this idea of a civil war happening in America. [0:33:45] Is that like – is that foreign propaganda basically to get Americans looking at one another suspicious? [0:33:54] or is that actually like a real threat based on what you're seeing? [0:34:02] I mean, it's been in the American zeitgeist since Obama. [0:34:05] I mean, I remember even during Obama, people were talking about, oh, the Civil War, [0:34:08] which was, I mean, it felt like a realistic possibility, you know, back then. [0:34:14] So Civil War is such a vague term. [0:34:16] I actually really dislike the term Civil War because you say that and it could, [0:34:21] you know, it's like it could mean a lot of different things. [0:34:23] So the, yes, I think what we're really looking at right now is what's called low-intensity conflict. [0:34:33] So it is beneath the threshold of conventional war. [0:34:37] So we're not talking about Russia-Ukraine. [0:34:38] It's not World War II. [0:34:39] It's not 1861. [0:34:41] But low-intensity conflict is still above routine peaceful competition. [0:34:46] So we're kind of in this gray zone. [0:34:47] Like America is not at war with each other, but we're definitely not at peace with each other either. [0:34:52] so that low intensity conflict is an umbrella term it conclude it includes everything from [0:34:58] violent social movements so like blm the summer of love but you know blm going back to 2014 or [0:35:04] however long uh you know that that is a low intensity conflict and then we have domestic [0:35:09] terrorism like these shootings and ambushes against ice officers and that idiot in new york [0:35:16] city that tried to dump gasoline on whatever that thing was right that's low intensity conflict i [0:35:21] I mean, that is basically political violence or some, it's violence to induce some political effect. [0:35:27] And then we have things like color revolutions or popular revolutions and all the way and up to including insurgency by nature of that counterinsurgency. [0:35:38] So, yes, all of those things, you know, it's funny. [0:35:41] You look at what the low intensity conflict umbrella actually includes. [0:35:44] And we have seen most or all of them since 2000 or say like since 2008, the great financial crisis, occupied Wall Street, you know, all the way up through, you know, 2016, 2020 and even now. [0:35:57] So we are firmly in it and it is not going to end anytime soon. [0:36:00] I think it's going to get much worse. [0:36:02] So probably what we're looking at is an escalate. [0:36:04] Well, it's very, very difficult to say. [0:36:07] But let's talk about color revolutions. [0:36:09] Sure. [0:36:09] Because there is a group in this country. [0:36:12] They're called Indivisible. [0:36:13] They're founded in 2016 and they use color revolution language. [0:36:20] Now they're not saying, Oh, we're going to go ramp up. [0:36:22] We're going to go build a color revolution, but they are, they absolutely are. [0:36:26] I sat through, this is one of those things. [0:36:29] It's like kind of a, it's not really even a light bulb moment, but it's like a red caught you red handed moment. [0:36:35] I just got done reading a book about the very first classic color revolution in Serbia, which was in October, 2000. [0:36:41] and they talked about the six pillar strategy that was kind of the core of the strategy [0:36:47] it was national endowment for democracy and it was the international republican institute [0:36:51] and so that revolution in serbia was in 2000 but they were training cadre they were preparing for [0:36:58] this back in 1998 so they have like a two-year ramp to to do this and now let's take this thing [0:37:04] where color revolutions they're foreign supported they're foreign backed they're foreign facilitated [0:37:09] and they're not they latch on to an organic movement but it's it's one facilitation of [0:37:15] that organic movement now let's take that concept in and put it to the united states here with this [0:37:20] group called indivisible they've already chosen yellow as their their color like you want to [0:37:25] you know what's a what's a color revolution without some color or symbol so that's that's [0:37:30] their color and they and they drape themselves in the flat in the flag and they say oh we're the [0:37:34] real patriots and like we're saving democracy from the fascists and so they you know they're [0:37:40] building they're using all the kind of the right uh right keywords there at any rate i was watching [0:37:45] this uh this uh training video from from uh indivisible and i saw you had no kings there [0:37:52] same kind of the same yep that's that's from the indivisible website it's right indivisible and [0:38:00] And it's – [0:38:00] So yeah, No Kings was kind of like their group pushing these No Kings protests, but it's affiliated with the Indivisible. [0:38:07] So anyway, what I want – the last point here is I saw this six-pillar strategy for the Indivisible No Kings movement, and I said that's word for word verbatim. [0:38:19] That is the same damn thing that they ran in Serbia in 2000. [0:38:23] So when I say indivisible is building a color revolution, it is because they are using color revolution terminology and doctrine in their movement, and they're pointing towards the 2028 general election. [0:38:35] And I think that's probably the big national strategic level thing that we all ought to be – not necessarily watching, but everyone at home needs to be aware of. [0:38:47] And then when we get closer to 2028, we'll kind of assess like how close they are in what tactics and what strategy they're going to pursue and then figure out how to combat it. [0:38:56] Yeah, no, I think it's super on point. There's this map, and you're just talking about Indivisible. A couple weeks ago, I did a podcast with Karlyn Borisenko. She goes undercover with Antifa. She goes undercover with the, is it PSL, the Party for Socialism and Liberation, Revolutionary Communists of America. [0:39:15] and so definitely go check out that episode [0:39:18] if you haven't seen it yet [0:39:18] because there's more than just one group [0:39:21] but I was going to say [0:39:22] like as you were mentioning Indivisible [0:39:24] this is their website [0:39:25] and this is crazy [0:39:27] like look at this map [0:39:30] and of course as we zoom in [0:39:31] hopefully it'll start populating [0:39:34] it's a little clunky [0:39:38] someone get their AI working on this [0:39:41] but like 30, 59 groups in Seattle [0:39:43] 59 groups outside of Portland and they're everywhere it's like all across the country [0:39:50] that these invisible groups are I know that in Pennsylvania where my parents live they've been [0:39:55] holding protests and uh meetups and all of that seems to be training right like they're training [0:40:02] their people you know they receive a notification on their phone they drop what they're doing they [0:40:07] come out they protest and that's all a part of like a reinforcement system I think can you [0:40:12] can you kind of like break out what are those six pillars of color revolution that that you [0:40:17] identified yeah sure well yeah it's not it's not necessarily that i identified i just i've been [0:40:24] reading about it it's it's their doctrine that they develop and let me just say something about [0:40:29] these protests because a lot of conservatives misunderstand what these protests are and are [0:40:34] about you know like the no kings the first one was the hands-off protests and there was no kings [0:40:40] And they've, you know, they have these like national level protests every so often. [0:40:43] There's been, I think, like three no kings protests now, national level protests. [0:40:48] And everyone's like, oh, well, there are 150 people in my town or there's, you know, 15,000 in New York City or whatever. [0:40:56] And they protested and nothing happened. [0:40:57] Like, oh, that's what a what a weak revolution. [0:41:00] And they fundamentally misunderstand this. [0:41:02] This is like batting practice right now. [0:41:04] What we're observing. [0:41:06] This is the networking. [0:41:07] this is, you know, like kind of phase, phase zero or phase one kind of operations where they're [0:41:13] building, identifying local leaders or local leadership and building cadre and training [0:41:18] these people on the tactics of, you know, nonviolence, what they call strategic nonviolence. [0:41:23] And they're indoctrinating all these people into this color revolution thinking mindset strategy. [0:41:30] And so this is what's happening right now. This is, we're not in the decisive phase. I mean, [0:41:34] it's important because if they don't do this, they can't launch the color revolution. But just [0:41:39] like we saw these groups in Serbia in 1998, you know, basically picking, they've identified this [0:41:46] OTPOR movement, which is a student-led movement in Serbia against Milosevic. And they said, hey, [0:41:51] we can build this revolutionary vehicle around this group, or we can build this like national [0:41:55] resistance movement around this student group. And so they come in and they start training cadre. [0:42:00] and I don't I think it was like 50 or 70 different um kind of cadre groups that they they trained all [0:42:08] around Serbia don't quote me on the number I forget what it was but I think it was somewhere [0:42:12] in the ballpark there and uh you know and then for two years they just organized until they had this [0:42:18] mass movement and that's the pivotal part and that really is the decisive phase is uh is the [0:42:26] appearance of a majority or a very large plurality of a country. And they have, you know, Erica [0:42:33] Chenoweth is one of the researchers that's been kind of facilitating some of this stuff as well. [0:42:39] You know, in her book, she said, or in one of her books, she said, three and a half percent, [0:42:43] you just need three and a half percent of a country to turn out and engage in mass political [0:42:48] defiance and no regime has ever survived that. So three and a half percent for them, they're [0:42:54] talking about 10 to 12 million americans so at any rate yeah those six pillars okay you think [0:42:59] about let's just say like um a house or a building or maybe like you know if you if you imagine like [0:43:04] the the acropolis right the greek columns there and there's six six of those columns and then you [0:43:11] have the roof on top well they say basically like you target these different sections of society [0:43:17] which are represented by the pillars and once you whittle them down you whittle support down [0:43:22] for that regime, which is represented by the roof, the columns collapse. And if you can collapse [0:43:28] enough of those columns, the whole roof implodes. And then that's your color revolution has succeeded. [0:43:33] You've driven the people from power. And then you can come in and have your government exile [0:43:37] or your shadow government come in and take over. And so those six pillars are in no way. I'll try [0:43:48] remember them in order. Business. Big business, small business doesn't matter. You run a corporation, [0:43:55] Fortune 500, or mom and pop shop doesn't matter. You have to, one of the key terms is elite is a [0:44:03] elite defection. So basically, if we have, you know, this 2028 presidential election, [0:44:09] and these groups come out and say, Oh, Donald Trump was working in cahoots with all these red [0:44:15] states to steal the election and they hacked into the things or whatever story they're going to come [0:44:19] up with but it has to be at least somewhat credible or like you know feasible i guess [0:44:25] actually i guess it doesn't even have to be feasible or credible they're just going to make [0:44:29] the accusation and push it and you know if a lie is told enough times and you get enough people to [0:44:33] believe it then it's effectively true at least for their perception and their perception guides their [0:44:39] belief and their belief guides their action so it's perception is key here so at any rate uh is [0:44:45] So business is the first pillar and then labor. So that's effectively captured with unions and all these labor organizations. You have religious institutions. So churches, whatever religious groups there are out there. Academia, which has been captured. What are those for? And then you have civil service. So government employees. And then the sixth one is military and police. [0:45:11] So this whole – the protest movement is designed to be large enough that it gives the appearance that a majority of Americans believe this election was stolen or that this president who's ever president or in charge is illegitimate. [0:45:27] And if you can get people to believe that a president is illegitimate, then the logical conclusion is, well, he needs to be replaced with someone who is legitimate or someone who is legally democratically elected. [0:45:38] And that's kind of the key mechanism for this movement. [0:45:41] So everyone has to understand these protests, this is not that we're not in the decisive phase. [0:45:45] This is batting practice. This is warm up. They're building their networks. [0:45:49] And every protest they have, they're allegedly at least attracting more people or getting more emails or getting more phone numbers or establishing more contact with people. [0:45:58] And, you know, even this is a very important aspect to understand as well. [0:46:03] It's like an iceberg. What's observable, that 10 percent of an iceberg or allegedly of whatever is observable. [0:46:10] That's just what's happening above the surface. 90% of their action is, has happening either [0:46:15] clandestinely or covertly. And that's the stuff that's far more difficult to see. So everyone's [0:46:20] focused on the protest. Like it's not nothing, but that's just, that's the one thing you can see. [0:46:24] What we can't see are all the, the in-home meetings and the small group meetings and the [0:46:29] meetings at coffee shops or bookshops or whatever, like much smaller things. And that they're [0:46:34] building the connective tissue of this network. That is actually, that is, is organizing. They [0:46:41] are building the human infrastructure that is going to drive this mass protest movement. So, [0:46:47] I mean, you know, I don't know how much time you have. We can keep talking about this stuff. I can [0:46:51] keep explaining exactly how this works, but I just want to say for now, you know, it's like, [0:46:55] they're building the batter. They're not baking the pancake yet, but they're mixing the batter [0:46:59] up in anticipation of putting in the pan. That's where we are. Yeah. Well, number one, we've got [0:47:03] as much time as it takes to, to, you know, talk or whatever, I've got zero outs. We can go as long [0:47:09] as we want. Uh, there's no time limits. So don't, don't, and I want to get into, I mean, I'm looking [0:47:13] at the page right now of, uh, color revolutions, you know, in Syria, I'd love to talk more about [0:47:17] this, but this is also something that it's been like, you know, the whole, like lead a horse to [0:47:22] water type of thing, you know, like in this fear that I operate in, you know, nationalists and, [0:47:27] you know, all these different kinds of, you know, groups of people, the dissident, right. Or whatever. [0:47:30] And it's like, I'm trying to tell people like, bro, you need to go door knocking. They're like, we need to save white America. It's like, no, no, no, stop. Like, wax on, wax off. Okay. Mr. Miyagi, you know, these, it's the same thing that they're doing with Indivisible that we see the right wing basically not doing. [0:47:51] The right wing is not engaging in this kind of nation building, community organizing, network building. And that's exactly what we should be doing, I think, you know, in the future. So it does make a lot of sense. I mean, there are some groups, I think, that are starting to kind of get off the ground and, you know, organizing, you know, kind of protest movements and stuff like that. [0:48:13] Um, but it's like, I feel like so much of this idea of revolution is like, it's like much more mundane. It's much more Mr. Miyagi wax on wax off than it is like, we're going to go overthrow the government. It's like, no, you're not actually you, you like, if somebody just waved the wand and made you, you know, governor or whatever, you would have no earthly idea how to run a state. [0:48:37] you've got to have a whole infrastructure built out and people with skills and talents, uh, to [0:48:45] bring in to this thing. And we're just, we're not there yet. Um, so yeah, I mean, if you've, [0:48:51] if you've got some more on, um, for example, like the Yugoslavian, is it called the bulldozer [0:48:56] revolution, uh, of 2000 for Milosevic? I mean, I would love to hear more about this, uh, from [0:49:04] your perspective, go ahead, share whatever you want. Yeah. Well, all right. So yeah, I've been [0:49:12] taking notes on this for probably the past couple of years and read a bunch of source material on it. [0:49:18] I have a really good grasp on how I think this is going to happen in the United States. [0:49:27] So, you know, even I say that and I'm like, you know, maybe I shouldn't say that stuff because, [0:49:32] I might wind up dying of a drug overdose or something like that, like a drug overdose. [0:49:40] So let's go back to this elite defection thing because I actually didn't explain that or not very well. [0:49:49] So when we wake up in the day after the election, or maybe it drags on through November or into December, [0:49:56] and both sides are claiming they won or the democrats are saying that the election was stolen [0:50:01] in these three states and uh you know it was because donald trump did it or the trump cronies [0:50:07] or whatever and our democracy is effectively over if if the maga candidate or the republican [0:50:11] candidate the president-elect yeah uh goes into power or is inaugurated so the the whole concept [0:50:21] of elite defection like let's talk about business elite defection and business what does that look [0:50:25] It looks like the CEOs of IBM and Microsoft and Apple and GE and all these other large corporations coming out and saying, we call on, let's just say J.D. Vance. [0:50:37] We call on president-elect J.D. Vance to step down as president-elect, or we call on Congress to whatever legal mechanisms there are. [0:50:46] We call on the Supreme Court to rule this election outcome null and void because it's illegal. [0:50:51] and you get, okay, so you get big business, big business leaders coming out and say that. [0:50:56] And then you have labor unions coming out and say, well, we're going to go on strike if our election is stolen, [0:51:02] there's no point in going to work, and so we're calling for a national strike or, you know, we're calling for a big strike. [0:51:08] By the way, there's likely going to be a national strike or at least a large attempt made in 2028 as well. [0:51:16] Yes. [0:51:17] On around May 1st, and, you know, maybe we can talk about that. [0:51:20] we've been talking about that for for two three four years now so then there and then you get uh [0:51:26] religious institutions you get all these church leaders and these national level religious [0:51:31] institutions that come out and say we believe the election was stolen and we call on whoever [0:51:35] to do the right thing and make kamala harris president or you know whatever and so you do [0:51:40] this along all these along all these columns these these six um you know pillars of society [0:51:47] in elite. Typically, when we talk about elite defection, the elites won't defect unless they [0:51:53] think that they're on the losing side. And then to save their own skin or to save their money or [0:51:58] save their business or to save whatever, or not to come under the microscope of this massive left [0:52:03] wing machine and be targeted for boycotts because you support the president or the president elect, [0:52:08] they'll say, okay, yeah, we agree with you and we're going to come over. Because you know what, [0:52:12] if these people take power, they're going to go string us up. They're going to start sniffing up [0:52:15] our skirts and start punishing us through lawfare and taking us through the legal process of these [0:52:23] DOJ criminal proceedings and indictments and all these things. So basically, they're going to try [0:52:28] to save their skin. And the reason why these mass protests are so important is because that's an [0:52:34] optics thing. Those are intended to convince the elites that they are going to be on the losing [0:52:39] side. And if, unless they want to get pitchforks and shovels, they need to defect from the Republican [0:52:47] party and go and say, yeah, Kamala, we believe Kamala Harris is president and she should be the [0:52:51] next president. And we call on JD Vance to step down and do the right thing or, you know, however [0:52:55] that's, that's going to work. So when I talk about elite defection and whittling down those pillars [0:53:00] of support until they're so thin, they break. And then the roof collapses, you know, this is, [0:53:04] The protest is large, sustained national protests are probably like the number one optic that you can have if you're trying to convince the elites of a country that they're going to lose power. [0:53:18] That's the theory at least. [0:53:20] Wow. [0:53:20] Yeah. And it does seem like there's some element of that that I've seen kind of going on where, you know, a lot of these elites are at least the argument that I've seen winning recently anyway, is that look at the Democratic Socialists of America. [0:53:39] they're going to take your shit. They are going to rob you. No one's allowed to be wealthy. [0:53:44] Therefore, you should support us, the fascist, you know, Palantir side or whatever, the Peter Thiel [0:53:51] sphere, right? Which is kind of, and I hate the word fascism. It doesn't really like mean anything [0:53:58] anymore, but for lack of a better word, uh, there are the fascists, i.e. Peter Thiel, J.D. Vance, [0:54:06] and that crowd. Then you've got the socialists, Mamdani, those types. And it's like, you know, [0:54:13] if you're like a big business or real estate owner in New York, which side are you going to go with? [0:54:17] Are you going to go with the side that's going to let you keep your property and keep your money [0:54:20] or are you going to get robbed? And I feel like that's kind of like the wager that a lot of these [0:54:25] elites are calculating right now. I could be totally off on that, but it seems like it. [0:54:34] Uh, and to, to get to your point, you know, there was an interesting news story last week, uh, that made the rounds here in Idaho. You were speaking of a religious pillar. Well, there is this like super gay left wing, uh, thing that's been going on here in Idaho. [0:54:51] This like Methodist Church Conference, the Oregon, Idaho Annual Conference of the United Methodist Church has canceled its convention in Boise. [0:55:03] And of course, you can see here at the bottom of this gay Methodist sign. [0:55:10] uh you've got it this is a sign from the wasmouth center for human rights which is in boise which [0:55:18] is founded by a pedophile priest named bill wasmouth who worked with the anti-defamation [0:55:24] league and the ajc back in the day uh but anyway this is a part of that network that religious [0:55:31] network uh of color revolutionaries and you know like there are entire denominations at this point [0:55:38] that will totally fall in lockstep with the, I mean, they'll give sermons about ICE and, you know, [0:55:46] protesting and all of this crazy stuff. You'll see these like left-wing Christians, if we can [0:55:53] call them that. But that is happening, you know, like, I think that there's a lot more to this [0:56:01] as a risk, you know, because the infrastructure is built. [0:56:07] You know, we might be in like a little bit of a reprieve right now [0:56:10] of like total, you know, tech domination and censorship and all of that. [0:56:16] But this could pop back up any second, take power, [0:56:20] and the conversation is over. [0:56:25] That's crazy. [0:56:26] Um, now how much of this is former like Intel people that are like left wing themselves that have taken the playbook of the United States government and are now kind of deploying that in these socialist groups? Is that happening? Do you think? [0:56:46] all right so the when we look at the main drivers the main organizers of this of this [0:56:55] color revolution movement this is not the far left this is the establishment left so this is [0:57:00] like the deep state the former uh state department employees cia whoever you know white house whoever [0:57:08] wherever they work so um you know this is not like the the socialist revolutionaries this is like the [0:57:14] establishment left that's really pushing us. That doesn't mean that some of these far left [0:57:18] groups don't get involved. I'm sure they will and just kind of be able to take their pound of flesh [0:57:24] from the right in the process. But this is very much like the Hillary Clinton deep state kind of [0:57:31] thing. So there was an article that came out, I think, back in 20 years, in 2025, shortly after [0:57:36] the election. And it was one article from this outlet called Notice or News of the United States, [0:57:44] I think that's what they're called. And it was about the former State Department employees and former CIA employees who'd quit their jobs to work on these pro-democracy groups. [0:57:57] And anytime you hear about pro-democracy groups in coordination with these people, it is always, you know, this is like deep state. [0:58:07] We want to control the world or, you know, we want to have our hands on a lever. [0:58:10] and so these are the oh yeah there you go trump fired them now they're plotting to stop him [0:58:16] yeah former usa id so the these are people who know exactly what they're doing because they were [0:58:22] the ones doing this all around the world pushing these pushing this money into these groups for [0:58:27] you know whatever trans retard basket weaving programs whatever they're doing the gay circuses [0:58:33] in colombia venezuela whatever they're doing which which is really just money laundering giving money [0:58:38] to these, their friend groups in these countries who were trying to take over the country. So like [0:58:43] all these women's programs that they were running in Afghanistan and Uzbekistan and Venezuela and [0:58:48] all these other places or wherever they were, that's all that stuff was. I'm sure some people [0:58:52] were trying to help, like legitimately help people, but I think we all understand exactly [0:58:57] what American money was going towards. So at any rate, yes, you have a bunch of these people. [0:59:02] They know what they're doing. They've done in the past. They understand the playbook. [0:59:05] And now they're running these they're trying to run these programs or build this movement domestically. That's exactly what they're trying to do. It's the same people. It's just a new country that happens to be ours. [0:59:15] that's wild that is so wild you know uh reminds me of that whole uh the oath i guess that uh [0:59:22] people in the army take right all all enemies foreign and domestic and it's like we've got [0:59:26] a huge problem on our hands that nobody seems to be dealing with and the republican party is too [0:59:33] busy chasing ideological purity to to be paying attention to what's being built under our own feet [0:59:39] um you know it's crazy and i'm not i'm not at all defending these people or what they're doing but i [0:59:46] am a realist and they're doing this because they legitimate or some of them legitimately believe [0:59:52] that trump is going to stay you know just like they did some people are just say that just to [0:59:57] scare the boogeyman and you know breathe you know push push oxygen into the fire and make everyone [1:00:03] freak out okay that's a psychological operation for intended effect that's behavior modification [1:00:08] you know presenting certain pieces of information to to modify how someone behaves but i think there [1:00:14] are people in this group that legitimately think that they're doing the right thing because they [1:00:19] do believe trump is fascist and they do believe that if they do not do this then trump will take [1:00:26] over and say he's emperor or steal the election or do whatever and let me just can i just let's [1:00:32] back up too yeah i there's like people will disagree with me and just and that that's fine [1:00:37] But let's just say for the sake of this argument, there are nine classic color revolutions. [1:00:43] And of those nine, six of the nine coincide with national level elections. [1:00:50] So elections happened. [1:00:52] There was a claim that the elections were stolen or whoever won the majority in the Congress or the parliament or whoever was elected president. [1:00:59] That was illegal. [1:01:01] And then that color revolution was launched. [1:01:04] But there are three of the nine that aren't around national elections, and one of them was the assassination of a prime minister was the trigger for a color revolution. [1:01:16] And then the other two were the executive in power, president or prime minister, acting out or trying to expand his authority illegally. [1:01:28] So illegal expansion of executive authority. [1:01:31] And those were the those were two times where color revolution was was triggered. [1:01:36] So, you know, just looking at those three cases or vignettes or three trigger types, you know, I think a lot of these people do believe that Trump is trying to illegally expand his executive authority. [1:01:48] And if the courts won't check him, the Supreme Court rules in his favor, then the Supreme Court is complicit and they're just helping his officials. [1:01:54] So listen, that is, I'm not saying that that is something that can be solved, but that is a belief. [1:02:01] And some beliefs can be changed. [1:02:03] The question is, what is Trump doing or what is anyone else doing to try to change those beliefs? [1:02:08] Like, you know, I'm not saying counter information operations. [1:02:12] And I'm not even saying that some of these people, I mean, they're obviously true believers. [1:02:15] Their minds will not be changed because perception is reality. [1:02:18] And a lot of them have internalized this and it's become part of their identity. [1:02:21] And you're not probably going to talk those people up. [1:02:24] But, you know, I think there should be there should be a certain assurances as we get closer to the election that, you know, Trump should say, hey, I'm I'm out of here. [1:02:35] I'm at the end of it because he has to calm the temperature down. [1:02:38] And I'm not saying that's going to have a massive effect on this movement. [1:02:42] But, you know, even taking, you know, taking some people out of that movement, trying to peel them off, trying to slow down their momentum. [1:02:48] Trump should absolutely not feed into this. [1:02:51] And we all know he's joking. [1:02:52] Trump has a 0% chance of becoming a dictator. [1:02:57] But he should not feed into that. [1:02:59] And the people in the administration should not feed into that. [1:03:02] So, you know, we'll see. [1:03:04] But I'm just thinking of like a, how do you slow this movement down? [1:03:08] You know, one of the things that I've been going around the country, [1:03:11] giving talks on organization and counter-organization. [1:03:13] Or organizing and counter-organizing. [1:03:16] Like how to organize your friends and how to counter-organize to disorganize your opponents. [1:03:21] And if you can do that, like that is the crux of all revolutionary and counter-revolutionary war. [1:03:27] Organize your friends, disorganize your opponents. [1:03:29] And if you can do those two things, you're probably going to win. [1:03:32] And so, you know, a lot of our thinking and efforts not only needs to be on how do we organize so we can build more political and social power and cultural power for ourselves, but also how can we counter-organize to stop certain things? [1:03:47] And then how do we disorganize our opponents? [1:03:49] from a non-intelligence approach, [1:03:54] but from an actual operations approach. [1:03:56] That has to be on the minds of everyone. [1:03:59] If you have one of these indivisible groups, [1:04:00] you have any of these far-left groups, [1:04:02] whoever, PSL, DSA, whoever, [1:04:04] these legit revolutionary political groups [1:04:07] operating in your area, [1:04:09] what can we be doing to blunt their momentum [1:04:13] or to stop their growth or to disorganize them? [1:04:16] And a lot of this stuff, [1:04:17] it's not gonna happen because the AR-15s [1:04:19] or from violence or the credible threat of the use of force. [1:04:21] It's going to come from informant influence, [1:04:25] psyop propaganda, information operations. [1:04:29] And that absolutely is something [1:04:31] that right-wing groups can be doing [1:04:33] and should and need to be doing in their own local area. [1:04:36] And if I can just make one more observation [1:04:38] to support this point. [1:04:41] Back in 2017, I live in Austin, Texas. [1:04:44] 2017, Austin, Texas, there was a march against Sharia. [1:04:47] and all these religious patriot groups came out and they they met down at the capitol and they [1:04:54] had their little rally and you know they had their bullhorns and they're trying to give a speech [1:04:57] and and it was drowned out i went down there as a third party observer i was walking around the [1:05:02] capitol area because not only were there the right-wing groups but it was like the revolutionary [1:05:07] student front and austin red guards and all these armed uh left you know leftist far left [1:05:13] revolutionary groups down there and i was taking pictures and just kind of like checking them out [1:05:18] and seeing what kind of firearms they had and see what kind of radios they had and really trying to [1:05:22] get a better picture of what we're dealing with as far as they're concerned at any rate when i [1:05:28] and this was like a classic antifa counter demonstration one of the things that i saw [1:05:33] is a couple of these um creatures clad in all black they're the the antifa types they're going [1:05:41] around handing these passersby pamphlets and talking with them, engaging with these people. [1:05:48] Okay, these are third party observers. And there was this Asian couple. And I remember the black [1:05:55] block Antifa clad individual walked over, handed them a pamphlet, and was saying something to the [1:06:02] effect of, these people are Nazis, and they want to kill trans people and gays and Muslims. And we [1:06:10] are defending the trans and the gays and the muslims and and the asian couple like they kind [1:06:16] of shook their head they're like oh yeah those people the nazis and you're the anti-nazis okay [1:06:20] yeah that's great and i was like you know you're marching against sharia that's fine you did not [1:06:25] change any minds you changed zero minds whatsoever you know who were changing minds antifa down on [1:06:31] the ground explaining to people longly that they're the nazis and we're the anti-nazis and [1:06:36] you should support us. And a lot of them were like, yeah, we support the anti-Nazis. And that's [1:06:41] the kind of local information operations. I mean, really it's propaganda, but that's like the [1:06:45] inform and influence stuff that we should be doing in our own local communities. And we don't need [1:06:49] to go to rallies. We don't need counter demonstrations. We should be doing this [1:06:53] pretty much around the clock. So that's another thing I would encourage everyone to do. Think [1:06:57] about the people on the bubble, right? The turbo normies, the middle of the ground, the people who [1:07:04] not ideologically inclined either way. How many of those people can we bring into our way of [1:07:10] thinking or into our sphere? Because the future of this country is not going to belong to the [1:07:15] people who have the most guns. It's going to belong to the people who bring the most other [1:07:20] people to the fight. In low-intensity conflict, just last point, low-intensity conflict all around [1:07:26] the world, I've been involved in four and I've read about dozens. The people who can radicalize [1:07:33] the middle against their opponents are going to win period. No, I, and I, I, this has been, [1:07:39] this has been something that I've been saying is like, Hey, listen, we need to be in the, you know, [1:07:43] cause the Republican party has been in this civil war for like five years now, six years, [1:07:47] especially in Idaho. There's all kinds of articles that are online about this civil war in Idaho. [1:07:52] And I was like, I was saying a couple of months ago, I'm like, listen, we should be reaching out [1:07:55] to moderates at this point. Uh, we should not like, we've got the radicals. We got the people [1:08:00] that want nationalism and they want mass deportation. We got all that. That's fine. Like, [1:08:05] we're good. Now we need to convince normal people that we're not the crazy ones and that they are, [1:08:12] actually, that if you let them win, then our way of life is done, you know? And so we'll see if [1:08:19] that works. What I was going to ask about is, do you have any practical examples, I guess, of this [1:08:27] counter-organizing and disorganizing of your opponent. [1:08:31] Do you have any sketches of examples for this? [1:08:36] Yeah. [1:08:37] So for organizing, there's a really good example here. [1:08:42] This happened over the past couple of years in this one county in Texas. [1:08:48] And they're, oh, actually, you know what? [1:08:49] I have maybe a better example. [1:08:51] Broken Arrow, Oklahoma. [1:08:52] I believe that's a suburb of Oklahoma City. [1:08:54] there was an islamic group in in oklahoma city and they said we have more members than we have [1:09:00] space for in our um in our mosque and so we're going to go in uh we've bought land but and we [1:09:08] want to build a mosque complex here so not just like a mosque but like like a retail area and [1:09:13] maybe a madrasa like a little school for these for these kids and so they they bought the land [1:09:19] and they went and they started lobbying the zoning commission and trying to get the commission to [1:09:24] rezone that land so they could build that mosque complex there. Because I think it was probably [1:09:29] zoned for like agricultural use and they're trying to get it rezone, right? Okay. So that's a [1:09:34] political process. Okay. So they had money to do that. They hired some advocacy group or lobbyists [1:09:39] to go down there and do that for them. Well, the zoning commission said, okay, yes, we are going to [1:09:44] take a vote on this. Like this is legal. We could easily just rezone this area. And so we're going [1:09:49] to hold hearings. And then you have people who did not want that mosque to be in their backyard [1:09:55] in Broken Arrow, effing Oklahoma. And they started counter organizing and they started getting people [1:10:02] and informing people. And they're like, Hey, this is what's going to happen. By the way, this was [1:10:06] not just like some tiny little rural mosque. They were, I think it was like 600 parking spots. [1:10:12] They wanted to build a parking lot with 600 parking spots there. So this thing was going to be [1:10:16] massive. And so what they did is they started going around in the community, explaining what [1:10:21] was going on and getting these people to these, to this hearing. And it was like standing room only. [1:10:27] And there was a line out the door and people really expressed like the community expressed [1:10:32] their, their opposition to this being done. So the zoning commission, yeah, they voted down [1:10:37] this rezoning plan. And of course the Muslim group said, Oh, this is discrimination and we're going [1:10:43] to sue you. But at least for now, that was a victory. I mean, I say a victory. That was a [1:10:48] battle. It was not the war, not the end of it. But that is a really good example of finding something [1:10:54] that is about to happen. It's a policy or some development in your local area, and then [1:10:59] counter organizing your community against that for some political victory. And people say voting [1:11:03] doesn't matter, and there's no political solution, all these things. There may not be an electoral [1:11:07] solution to our problems. But every solution is political. Every solution we have is inherently [1:11:14] political. Voting with one man in office obviously is not going to solve the problem. But all of [1:11:18] these problems that we're talking about have political solutions because political solutions [1:11:24] are enduring and legitimate solutions. So that's the thing to keep in mind. I'm not saying go out [1:11:29] and cheerlead your local GOP, but get involved in local politics. That is the only way we're going [1:11:36] to win. I was going to read, I have this tweet that you had put out. I'll read this if you don't [1:11:40] mind. You had, this was a retweet of Diomedes Appreciator. And so I'll read this. It says, [1:11:48] I mean, you're totally spot on here. It says a person's willingness to act has a floor and a [1:11:52] ceiling. The floor is the absolute minimum effort, like calling or emailing an elected official. [1:11:58] 99% of those clamoring for civil war or revolution don't even, they haven't even done so much as this. [1:12:04] The ceiling, on the other hand, is a person's absolute maximum effort, in this case, the use of armed violence or coercion to achieve political ends. [1:12:13] Guess what? Most people's ceiling is actually the floor, so good luck getting them to pick up a rifle. [1:12:20] The reality is that rifles alone do not win low-intensity conflicts, and violence is not the decisive factor, not even close. [1:12:26] Narrative, legitimacy, and organization are the decisive factors. [1:12:29] So whoever controls the narrative, achieves or maintains legitimacy, and has the better organization, [1:12:34] which is to say the highest internal cohesion is going to win. [1:12:37] So if you want to win, let 5-10% focus on violence, and let the remaining 90-95% focus on three decisive factors. [1:12:45] Informational operations and propaganda, building a political movement, and local organizing, [1:12:52] because conflicts require numerous lines of support. [1:12:55] and so that it just kind of plugs in with what you were saying i think that you know there there [1:13:00] is a lot of doomerism out there but it's like you know i did a podcast two weeks ago it's on the show [1:13:06] like our local mayor just partnered with ice in the 287g program or the first city in the entire [1:13:12] state of idaho to do that and it's like well okay like finally someone's doing a thing you know and [1:13:18] that would not have happened if people hadn't showed up to vote for him you know uh so i think [1:13:23] I do think that that is important, you know, because it's like, you know, like even like a white nationalist, you know, like, what do you really want? You know, what do you really want? And when it boils down to is like most people just want to live in 1990s America again. It's like not crazy. You know, like, no, actually, we don't want death camps. We don't want to like murder everybody that we don't like. [1:13:46] It's just like I would like to live in America in 1996 again and be able to walk into the city without like, you know, a concealed carry gun because I'm afraid that someone's going to like poop and like stab me with a syringe. [1:14:02] You know, like it's not crazy. [1:14:04] It's like not rocket science here. [1:14:07] So anyway, that's that's crazy. [1:14:09] But yeah, no, this is this is fantastic information. [1:14:12] We're going to have to have you back on the show, maybe do a deep dive on some of these other color revolutions. [1:14:18] But, Mike, if you want to plug your stuff again, please go ahead. [1:14:22] And I'll see if I can pull it up on the screen when you talk about it. [1:14:26] Yeah, thanks. [1:14:26] So, yeah, the name of my company is Forward Observer. [1:14:29] And we started as a newsletter back in 2016, mainly focusing on far left issues, like tracking far left groups. [1:14:36] And then we last year hired a CTO and we've been building this new tech platform. [1:14:40] So that's the old website. But I think on Friday, probably Friday night, we'll have the new Forward Observer up. And so we built this intelligence platform to help us sift through massive amounts of information and pick out those pieces of information that have intelligence value and then add that to our intelligence picture. [1:14:57] So actually, this is like the beta site running back here. [1:15:00] So we've got like protests and riots and tracking all sorts of different things. [1:15:04] And again, this is like kind of phase one. [1:15:06] We're going to continue to build this out as now an intelligence technology company. [1:15:11] So fordobserver.com, I hear like a few days people will be able to go there and sign up, get access to all this information and help support our mission for what we're doing. [1:15:20] And then, yeah, arianintelligence.com, eventually I'll have that site updated. [1:15:25] I probably got like two weeks worth of work, my editor and I, still to go through until we can publish this book. [1:15:33] But the new Area Intelligence Handbook is going to be out sometime in August in the next two, three weeks. [1:15:40] Basically, once we get this site up and running, that's my next big production area. [1:15:45] That's awesome. [1:15:45] And of course, he's got at Forward Observer over on YouTube, and you can follow him for insight on X at Grayzone Intel. [1:15:56] Mike, thank you so much for joining us today. [1:15:58] This was great. [1:15:59] A nice little dip of the toe into like actual intelligence gathering and community organizing. [1:16:05] I think it was really good. [1:16:07] Yeah. [1:16:08] Well, thanks for having me. [1:16:09] I appreciate the platform. [1:16:10] Love talking about this stuff. [1:16:11] And yeah, anytime. [1:16:12] I'd love to come back. [1:16:13] Awesome. [1:16:13] Very good. [1:16:14] Well, thank you so much. [1:16:15] we're going to let you go there. We've got some more ads we got to read. Uh, so I won't make you [1:16:20] suffer through all of that. Uh, but thanks again for joining us. That was wonderful. Mike Shelby, [1:16:27] everybody give him a big, do I have a round of applause? There we go. Uh, so anyway, that's, [1:16:34] that's all. This is what I've been talking about. You know, like you got a door knock it, [1:16:40] Not because the door knocking is the end, but because that is the necessary training to building a political machine that needs to be done. [1:16:50] So, yeah. [1:16:52] Now, we did get a super chat from Winged Hussar. [1:16:54] It wasn't really a question, but I will shout that out. [1:16:58] The Winged Hussar sent $10 and said, I think unless the Flock program is mitigated constitutionally and legally, sawing poles will become obsolete. [1:17:07] we will be looking at tiny drones with stout batteries or some other advancement. Yeah. I mean, [1:17:13] they want, they want to see, they're going to see. And people forget all the time. [1:17:19] This is like the number one intelligence gathering tool in the world. It's in your pocket. [1:17:27] It's listening. Have you ever had a conversation with somebody and then all of a sudden you're [1:17:31] getting advertised to about specifically what you were talking about? Because this is doing that. [1:17:37] It's also transmitting your location, but you got a problem with flock. [1:17:41] Okay. [1:17:42] What about Tesla? [1:17:43] What about the 16 cameras on a Tesla car that are all beaming back all of their information [1:17:48] to Tesla HQ, rather than taking that data, packaging it up and selling it off like oil, [1:17:54] right? [1:17:55] Data is the new oil. [1:17:57] And these Amazon trucks too. [1:17:59] Amazon trucks have automated license plate readers on them. [1:18:02] As they're driving around, making their deliveries, they're tagging every license plate they [1:18:07] see. They've got records on who's home, who's not ring doorbells too. So don't get me started on [1:18:12] this flock stuff. Just don't, don't do stupid shit. Okay. Don't do illegal things. Don't, [1:18:17] don't do that. Please, for the love of God, I'm not your father. I don't need to tell you what to [1:18:22] do, but my God, uh, you know, spend a little bit of time focusing on your local area, your local [1:18:29] politics, and then you won't have to like, I don't know, put on a ski mask and go like, you know, [1:18:34] with a hacksaw or something. Jeez. Anyway, yeah, well, we got to give a big shout out, [1:18:42] first of all, to ODGG Supply, because one of the big things is being prepared no matter what, [1:18:48] and these social protest movements could be kicking off at any point. So you want to go to [1:18:53] odggsupply.com, where they've got all kinds of tactical equipment. They've got stickers, [1:19:01] fun things but they've also got stuff like tents let's go let's go into the catalog here they've [1:19:08] got medical medical is a big one too you should everybody should have a tourniquet in their car [1:19:13] clot quick clot quick clot is like super cheap you can buy it at like cabela's for god's sakes [1:19:19] but you can also buy it at odggsupply.com and if you use promo code backlash 14 at checkout you [1:19:26] will get 14% off your order. So you've got absolutely no excuse. Every one of you should [1:19:31] have a bug out bag in your car with equipment to get home in a pinch. Uh, you know, uh, so anyway, [1:19:40] get, get stocked up, get prepared, like be a boy scout, go to odggsupply.com, use promo code [1:19:48] Backlash 14 for 14% off your order there. [1:19:52] Also, a big, huge shout out to our friends at Above Time Coffee. [1:19:58] Let me get their logo. [1:20:00] There we go. [1:20:01] That looks nice. [1:20:02] Above Time Coffee Roasters, makers, and purveyors of fine hand-roasted fair trade non-kosher coffee from Pennsylvania. [1:20:13] We had to switch back for a week to Costco coffee. [1:20:18] it sucks. It sucks. Like above time coffee has broken me. I need, I need the real deal [1:20:27] in my coffee cup in the morning. This Costco coffee Folgers, that ain't going to cut it. [1:20:33] This stuff is fresh. They hand roasted to order. It's not sitting around on their shelves forever [1:20:41] gathering mold. It's all basically made to order. 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[1:24:11] They'll have to live in Seattle. [1:24:13] So check out IdahoTalo.com. [1:24:15] Use promo code for life. [1:24:16] And last but not least, of course, our friends at Atlas Bullion. [1:24:20] if you are sick and tired of being robbed by your own government [1:24:24] because of the money printing and inflation. [1:24:27] Check out atlasbullion.com slash backlash. [1:24:29] The link is in the show notes below. [1:24:31] You can start stacking precious metals [1:24:33] that you can then pass on to your kids and your grandkids. [1:24:37] You can't debase it. [1:24:38] They can't fake it. [1:24:39] It's got to be real gold and silver in your possession. [1:24:44] The government is not going to go door to door, [1:24:46] you know, knocking for your gold. [1:24:49] I don't even think they did that in 1933. What they will do is maybe they'll raid some of the 401k programs, some of the centralized repositories where people are putting their gold for other people to hold, like I said, an IRA or a 401k. [1:25:06] but they don't have the manpower to go door-to-door nationwide [1:25:10] and confiscate gold and silver. [1:25:13] That's not going to happen. [1:25:15] So be prepared by stacking precious metals today [1:25:19] at atlasbullion.com slash backlash. [1:25:24] Oh, yeah. [1:25:25] All right. [1:25:26] Well, that was a great show. [1:25:27] First guest we've had on in a couple of weeks. [1:25:28] We're going to have a lot more coming up here. [1:25:31] So stay tuned. [1:25:32] We will have more updates as we go along [1:25:36] and what else? [1:25:38] Yeah, we are doing a thing in the area on Saturday, [1:25:42] Saturday night, the 25th. [1:25:44] If you are in North Idaho, shoot me an email, [1:25:46] info at thebacklash.net. [1:25:48] We are having a get together [1:25:50] so we can provide all the details for that there. [1:25:53] Anyway, God bless you. [1:25:54] Have a great day. [1:25:55] We'll see you next Monday. [1:25:57] This is The Backlash. [1:25:58] Have a good one. [1:26:06] I'm sorry. [1:26:36] Thank you. [1:27:06] Thank you. [1:27:36] Thank you. [1:28:06] We'll be right back.